Key takeaways

  • Generally, the quarterly realised net return from 2015 to 2016 is on an significant uptrend compared to previous years.
  • Slovakia and Spain underperformed in 2014 with a realised net return of -8.84% and -3.66% respectively.
  • Despite strong performance in 2015 and 2016, the total realised net return for Spain across all periods is low at just 2.93% due to a slow start in 2013 and 2014.
  • In recent years Spain and Finland have experienced continued improvement.
  • Estonia is continuing its stable performance across years while also exceeding target returns each year. Realised returns for 2016 are showing biggest difference yet, exceeding the target by nearly 6 percentage points.

Actual and targeted bondora net returns by grade and country

Estonia

  • Every loan rating has outperformed its target in each quarter of 2016 except the “A” rated loans in Q2.
  • The highest outperformance relative to targeted net return has been seen in the “F” and “HR” rated loans in each quarter of 2016.
  • Loans rated “B” through “HR” have earned double digit net returns for every quarter since 2015.
EstoniaAAABCDEFHR
2015
Q1
Actual14,61%13,99%15,76%18,67%20,92%23,71%24,99%23,74%
Target13,10%13,84%14,31%15,76%18,47%20,43%23,17%23,51%
2015
Q2
Actual14,30%11,40%15,25%14,49%22,17%17,99%31,74%20,66%
Target13,20%13,82%14,29%15,89%18,40%20,46%23,08%23,65%
2015
Q3
Actual15,50%15,25%16,19%17,79%18,53%27,50%28,89%28,97%
Target13,18%13,85%14,30%15,79%18,43%20,32%23,19%23,85%
2015
Q4
Actual14,03%15,39%15,30%19,41%20,42%15,61%23,87%29,23%
Target12,20%13,17%13,81%15,50%17,59%18,41%21,29%20,83%
2016
Q1
Actual11,81%13,43%15,20%19,33%24,15%26,34%24,49%35,93%
Target10,62%11,32%12,09%14,38%16,17%17,51%18,28%17,96%
2016
Q2
Actual9,45%1,42%14,10%15,82%18,90%22,66%29,63%27,54%
Target8,15%9,74%11,46%13,62%15,22%16,47%17,05%17,10%
2016
Q3
Actual9,66%11,98%11,86%14,79%19,04%23,77%27,71%29,29%
Target8,40%9,77%11,48%13,64%15,22%16,48%17,04%17,10%
2016
Q4
Actual9,14%10,47%12,15%15,95%18,88%26,81%30,13%
Target8,21%8,61%9,61%11,10%12,47%14,09%14,94%

Finland

  • The performance of the realised net return compared to the targeted figure has fluctuated since 2015, however, three out of the four quarters in 2016 outperformed their target.
  • Realised net returns have reached the double digits in 7 of the last 8 quarters.
  • “E” and “F” rated loans frequently outperform their targeted figure by the widest margin.
FinlandAAABCDEFHR
2015
Q1
Actual8,50%6,59%7,71%11,03%19,64%42,58%
Target12,87%13,33%14,50%16,61%18,15%20,82%
2015
Q2
Actual4,27%9,22%11,48%8,62%5,69%12,27%
Target12,88%13,33%14,67%16,67%18,07%20,86%
2015
Q3
Actual1,49%8,08%11,66%14,17%7,13%18,02%
Target12,90%13,30%14,70%16,58%18,36%20,81%
2015
Q4
Actual1,08%11,39%15,69%14,55%9,16%25,20%
Target12,89%12,80%14,49%16,02%16,86%18,11%
2016
Q1
Actual15,10%12,77%17,86%25,75%22,47%15,22%
Target9,87%11,22%12,56%13,44%14,24%14,40%
2016
Q2
Actual16,86%16,90%14,97%22,62%19,82%7,47%
Target12,07%14,05%16,17%17,55%18,27%19,19%
2016
Q3
Actual7,82%17,30%15,63%14,39%15,10%-1,23%
Target12,45%14,34%16,37%17,89%18,91%19,19%
2016
Q4
Actual-10,93%18,34%23,97%24,96%30,94%32,77%
Target9,90%11,87%14,32%16,37%20,66%27,53%

Spain

  • Spain had poor performance in Q2 of 2016 but the other three quarters generated realised net returns in the double digits.
  • “F” loans have outperformed their targeted figures for 3 quarters in 2016.
  • Spain has seen its realised return grow from -9.15% to 17.41% over 4 years of uninterrupted improvement.
SpainAAABCDEFHR
2015
Q1
Actual-5,13%-7,73%-6,80%5,97%10,83%9,49%
Target12,62%12,90%14,33%16,21%18,32%20,24%
2015
Q2
Actual-13,32%-9,91%5,04%11,50%13,70%
Target12,85%14,33%16,23%18,32%20,22%
2015
Q3
Actual16,04%-6,99%7,30%11,78%3,89%
Target13,11%14,55%16,18%18,32%20,31%
2015
Q4
Actual18,31%-1,07%6,64%17,03%12,94%
Target13,41%14,93%16,24%17,85%18,06%
2016
Q1
Actual37,26%25,33%19,60%
Target14,61%14,58%13,93%
2016
Q2
Actual-11,55%7,66%2,34%
Target19,41%20,16%20,36%
2016
Q3
Actual31,14%26,79%11,97%
Target19,30%20,24%20,65%
2016
Q4
Actual37,32%23,02%32,28%
Target16,44%17,15%27,79%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across portfolio per quarter

In each quarter of 2016 we’ve seen the total realised net return outperform the targeted figure. Improvements across all countries have led to realised returns in 2016 that exceed figures for the same periods in 2015. On average, the performance of the realised return was on par with the targeted figure, slightly surpassing it by 0.35 percentage points. However, in 2016 the realised return average across quarters exceeded the average targeted figure by 3.66 percentage points.

2015-Q12015-Q22015-Q32015-Q42016-Q12016-Q22016-Q32016-Q4
Actual13,00%12,10%13,36%15,88%21,24%16,60%16,99%22,89%
Target16,56%16,52%16,79%16,28%14,66%15,64%16,38%16,41%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across previous 8 years

Estonia remains a top performer with each year’s realised return exceeding the targeted figure. Spain had a slow start but we’ve seen continued improvement from one year to the next and are pleased with the general trajectory. This year Finland has outperformed it’s target for the first time. Finally, Slovakia remains a poor performer, however our investors are still benefitting from plenty of good options with the other countries.

20092010201120122013201420152016
CountryActualActualActualActualActualTargetActualTargetActualTargetActualTarget
EE16,50%29,53%24,41%23,22%21,31%18,15%21,05%18,16%18,72%17,00% 19,60% 13,86%
ES-9,15%19,26%-3,66%19,37%7,10%17,42% 17,41% 21,48%
FI9,91%17,53%9,14%15,99%10,55%15,50% 19,58% 16,85%
SK-8,84%23,76%
ALL16,50%29,53%24,41%23,22%18,75%18,11%11,48%18,11%13,35%16,57% 19,26% 15,89%