Key takeaways

  • The latest (Q3) total across all countries shows a realised performance of 20,64% which is 435 basis points above the targeted figure for the period.
  • Bondora exceeded the target figure for total loan performance for last four consecutive quarters.
  • First two quarters of 2016 have delivered performance that exceeds any given individual quarter of 2015. Loans originated in third quarter of 2016 are expected to follow the same trend.
  • While the actual returns against targeted returns for 2015 were lower by 88 basis points on average, the trend for 2016 shows improvement – on average, the actual returns are 517 basis points higher than the average targeted returns to date.

Actual and targeted bondora net returns by grade and country

Estonia

  • The country saw strong performance for the period with every risk rating delivering a return above the targeted goal.
  • As one travels down the rating scale to riskier loans the realized return increases incrementally with the exception of the HR rating (27.55%) which was slightly less than the F rating (28.89%). This reflects a risk/return payoff.
  • The average return across all ratings is 19.34% which is between Spain (26.23%) and Finland (14.74%).
EstoniaAAABCDEFHR
2015
Q1
Actual14,85%14,47%16,46%19,57%22,26%25,71%27,63%24,88%
Target12,98%13,82%14,30%15,74%18,51%20,34%23,14%23,46%
2015
Q2
Actual14,73%11,19%15,94%16,64%23,95%20,13%34,03%22,69%
Target13,11%13,83%14,26%15,96%18,47%20,49%23,06%23,62%
2015
Q3
Actual15,48%15,44%16,58%19,50%18,64%28,83%32,18%31,95%
Target13,09%13,84%14,27%15,85%18,39%20,32%23,15%23,85%
2015
Q4
Actual14,15%15,74%15,64%20,23%20,97%22,04%28,24%33,91%
Target12,20%13,17%13,81%15,50%17,59%18,41%21,29%20,83%
2016
Q1
Actual11,76%13,24%15,53%19,98%24,34%27,56%27,31%36,27%
Target10,62%11,32%12,09%14,38%16,18%17,51%18,28%17,96%
2016
Q2
Actual9,38%3,93%14,01%15,67%21,00%24,91%32,19%30,31%
Target8,15%9,74%11,46%13,62%15,22%16,47%17,05%17,10%
2016
Q3
Actual9,34%11,55%13,33%16,47%20,92%26,67%28,89%27,55%
Target8,39%9,74%11,46%13,61%15,27%16,52%17,05%17,10%

Finland

  • The country has underperformed relative to Spain and Estonia especially within the HR rated loans which have a return of only 1.22%.
  • The D, E and F rated loans contributed the greatest amount to the performance, pushing the average total return above the total for 2013 and 2014 and 2015.
  • Although the finnish segment across ratings has performed lower than the target in 2015, the returns for 2016 are so far exceeding their targets with few exceptions (B in Q3 of 2016, HR in Q2, Q3 of 2016).
FinlandAAABCDEFHR
2015
Q1
Actual10,02%8,35%10,11%14,50%21,73%44,36%
Target12,88%13,33%14,41%16,58%17,98%20,90%
2015
Q2
Actual5,73%11,68%13,47%11,48%7,99%14,69%
Target12,88%13,31%14,70%16,62%18,04%21,04%
2015
Q3
Actual1,58%9,15%14,58%16,14%8,99%21,05%
Target12,90%13,28%14,71%16,49%18,54%20,81%
2015
Q4
Actual2,94%10,99%17,49%15,75%11,67%27,57%
Target12,89%12,80%14,49%16,02%16,86%18,11%
2016
Q1
Actual15,04%14,27%19,64%26,02%24,82%18,52%
Target9,87%11,22%12,56%13,44%14,24%14,40%
2016
Q2
Actual16,47%18,49%17,38%25,92%22,91%13,27%
Target12,07%14,05%16,17%17,55%18,27%19,19%
2016
Q3
Actual7,91%17,38%19,33%21,77%20,83%1,22%
Target12,45%14,33%16,41%17,92%18,89%19,19%

Spain

  • Though starting from 2016, only E, F and HR loans have been originated, the country offered the highest average return of 22,08% for 2016 loans.
  • As with Finland, loans from 2015 have been performing well below their target but the trend for 2016 is showing considerable improvement.
SpainAAABCDEFHR
2015
Q1
Actual-1,99%-7,71%-5,94%8,06%14,17%12,69%
Target12,61%12,85%14,39%16,17%18,32%20,33%
2015
Q2
Actual-11,85%-8,27%7,06%14,47%16,78%
Target12,80%14,36%16,29%18,32%20,31%
2015
Q3
Actual17,32%-7,34%10,46%15,08%7,69%
Target13,01%14,74%16,20%18,32%20,31%
2015
Q4
Actual20,02%-1,67%8,65%19,60%15,29%
Target13,41%14,93%16,22%17,85%18,06%
2016
Q1
Actual36,18%29,41%23,30%
Target14,61%14,58%13,93%
2016
Q2
Actual2,63%20,13%8,36%
Target19,41%20,16%20,36%
2016
Q3
Actual27,71%27,69%23,28%
Target19,30%20,25%20,64%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across portfolio per quarter

With the exception of Q1 of 2015, all the other quarters from the reported period are performing above the target.

2015-Q12015-Q22015-Q32015-Q42016-Q12016-Q22016-Q3
Actual14,90%18,92%20,98%20,86%22,62%19,68%20,64%
Target16,34%16,33%16,63%16,28%14,66%15,64%16,29%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across previous 7 years

For the past three full years from 2013-2015, Estonian and Finnish segments of the portfolio have been showing relatively stable performance, with Estonia hovering between 20-22% overall returns and Finland between 10-13% returns. Performance for the Spanish segment has been poor in the first years (2013, 2014) in Bondora but has been showing yearly improvement and is expected to reach it’s target levels for 2016 loans.

2009201020112012201320142015
CountryActualActualActualActualActualTargetActualTargetActualTarget
EE16,40%29,42%24,22%23,11%21,79%18,16%21,86%18,12%20,08%16,88%
ES-7,06%19,26%-2,04%19,42%9,65%17,50%
FI11,17%17,53%10,65%16,02%12,67%15,30%
SK-6,92%23,74%
ALL16,40%29,42%24,22%23,11%19,39%18,12%12,68%18,10%15,24%16,40%