Bondora portfolio performance – December 2016

Key takeaways

  • The latest (Q3) total across all countries shows a realised performance of 20,64% which is 435 basis points above the targeted figure for the period.
  • Bondora exceeded the target figure for total loan performance for last four consecutive quarters.
  • First two quarters of 2016 have delivered performance that exceeds any given individual quarter of 2015. Loans originated in third quarter of 2016 are expected to follow the same trend.
  • While the actual returns against targeted returns for 2015 were lower by 88 basis points on average, the trend for 2016 shows improvement – on average, the actual returns are 517 basis points higher than the average targeted returns to date.

Actual and targeted bondora net returns by grade and country

Estonia

  • The country saw strong performance for the period with every risk rating delivering a return above the targeted goal.
  • As one travels down the rating scale to riskier loans the realized return increases incrementally with the exception of the HR rating (27.55%) which was slightly less than the F rating (28.89%). This reflects a risk/return payoff.
  • The average return across all ratings is 19.34% which is between Spain (26.23%) and Finland (14.74%).
Estonia AA A B C D E F HR
2015
Q1
Actual 14,85% 14,47% 16,46% 19,57% 22,26% 25,71% 27,63% 24,88%
Target 12,98% 13,82% 14,30% 15,74% 18,51% 20,34% 23,14% 23,46%
2015
Q2
Actual 14,73% 11,19% 15,94% 16,64% 23,95% 20,13% 34,03% 22,69%
Target 13,11% 13,83% 14,26% 15,96% 18,47% 20,49% 23,06% 23,62%
2015
Q3
Actual 15,48% 15,44% 16,58% 19,50% 18,64% 28,83% 32,18% 31,95%
Target 13,09% 13,84% 14,27% 15,85% 18,39% 20,32% 23,15% 23,85%
2015
Q4
Actual 14,15% 15,74% 15,64% 20,23% 20,97% 22,04% 28,24% 33,91%
Target 12,20% 13,17% 13,81% 15,50% 17,59% 18,41% 21,29% 20,83%
2016
Q1
Actual 11,76% 13,24% 15,53% 19,98% 24,34% 27,56% 27,31% 36,27%
Target 10,62% 11,32% 12,09% 14,38% 16,18% 17,51% 18,28% 17,96%
2016
Q2
Actual 9,38% 3,93% 14,01% 15,67% 21,00% 24,91% 32,19% 30,31%
Target 8,15% 9,74% 11,46% 13,62% 15,22% 16,47% 17,05% 17,10%
2016
Q3
Actual 9,34% 11,55% 13,33% 16,47% 20,92% 26,67% 28,89% 27,55%
Target 8,39% 9,74% 11,46% 13,61% 15,27% 16,52% 17,05% 17,10%

Finland

  • The country has underperformed relative to Spain and Estonia especially within the HR rated loans which have a return of only 1.22%.
  • The D, E and F rated loans contributed the greatest amount to the performance, pushing the average total return above the total for 2013 and 2014 and 2015.
  • Although the finnish segment across ratings has performed lower than the target in 2015, the returns for 2016 are so far exceeding their targets with few exceptions (B in Q3 of 2016, HR in Q2, Q3 of 2016).
Finland AA A B C D E F HR
2015
Q1
Actual 10,02% 8,35% 10,11% 14,50% 21,73% 44,36%
Target 12,88% 13,33% 14,41% 16,58% 17,98% 20,90%
2015
Q2
Actual 5,73% 11,68% 13,47% 11,48% 7,99% 14,69%
Target 12,88% 13,31% 14,70% 16,62% 18,04% 21,04%
2015
Q3
Actual 1,58% 9,15% 14,58% 16,14% 8,99% 21,05%
Target 12,90% 13,28% 14,71% 16,49% 18,54% 20,81%
2015
Q4
Actual 2,94% 10,99% 17,49% 15,75% 11,67% 27,57%
Target 12,89% 12,80% 14,49% 16,02% 16,86% 18,11%
2016
Q1
Actual 15,04% 14,27% 19,64% 26,02% 24,82% 18,52%
Target 9,87% 11,22% 12,56% 13,44% 14,24% 14,40%
2016
Q2
Actual 16,47% 18,49% 17,38% 25,92% 22,91% 13,27%
Target 12,07% 14,05% 16,17% 17,55% 18,27% 19,19%
2016
Q3
Actual 7,91% 17,38% 19,33% 21,77% 20,83% 1,22%
Target 12,45% 14,33% 16,41% 17,92% 18,89% 19,19%

Spain

  • Though starting from 2016, only E, F and HR loans have been originated, the country offered the highest average return of 22,08% for 2016 loans.
  • As with Finland, loans from 2015 have been performing well below their target but the trend for 2016 is showing considerable improvement.
Spain AA A B C D E F HR
2015
Q1
Actual -1,99% -7,71% -5,94% 8,06% 14,17% 12,69%
Target 12,61% 12,85% 14,39% 16,17% 18,32% 20,33%
2015
Q2
Actual -11,85% -8,27% 7,06% 14,47% 16,78%
Target 12,80% 14,36% 16,29% 18,32% 20,31%
2015
Q3
Actual 17,32% -7,34% 10,46% 15,08% 7,69%
Target 13,01% 14,74% 16,20% 18,32% 20,31%
2015
Q4
Actual 20,02% -1,67% 8,65% 19,60% 15,29%
Target 13,41% 14,93% 16,22% 17,85% 18,06%
2016
Q1
Actual 36,18% 29,41% 23,30%
Target 14,61% 14,58% 13,93%
2016
Q2
Actual 2,63% 20,13% 8,36%
Target 19,41% 20,16% 20,36%
2016
Q3
Actual 27,71% 27,69% 23,28%
Target 19,30% 20,25% 20,64%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across portfolio per quarter

With the exception of Q1 of 2015, all the other quarters from the reported period are performing above the target.

2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2 2016-Q3
Actual 14,90% 18,92% 20,98% 20,86% 22,62% 19,68% 20,64%
Target 16,34% 16,33% 16,63% 16,28% 14,66% 15,64% 16,29%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across previous 7 years

For the past three full years from 2013-2015, Estonian and Finnish segments of the portfolio have been showing relatively stable performance, with Estonia hovering between 20-22% overall returns and Finland between 10-13% returns. Performance for the Spanish segment has been poor in the first years (2013, 2014) in Bondora but has been showing yearly improvement and is expected to reach it’s target levels for 2016 loans.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Country Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target
EE 16,40% 29,42% 24,22% 23,11% 21,79% 18,16% 21,86% 18,12% 20,08% 16,88%
ES -7,06% 19,26% -2,04% 19,42% 9,65% 17,50%
FI 11,17% 17,53% 10,65% 16,02% 12,67% 15,30%
SK -6,92% 23,74%
ALL 16,40% 29,42% 24,22% 23,11% 19,39% 18,12% 12,68% 18,10% 15,24% 16,40%