Bondora portfolio performance – February 2017

Key takeaways

  • The latest performance data marks the fifth consecutive quarter of realised net returns exceeding the targeted figure.
  • Estonia continue to deliver the strongest average realised net return of 19,57% since Q1 of 2015.
  • Q4 of 2016 marks the second highest realised net return for all countries (20,53%) since Q1 of 2015 as Spain’s surging performance of 28,22% marks the single highest return for a country in the last eight consecutive quarters.

Actual and targeted bondora net returns by grade and country

Estonia

  • For all of 2016 every rating has outperformed the targeted figure (excluding “A” in Q2).
  • The strongest returns continue to concentrate around the higher risk ratings of “D”, “E” and “F”.
  • The “C” rated loans in the country have outperformed their targeted figure for each quarter of 2016 offering investors a good mid-level solution to the risk/reward balance.
Estonia AA A B C D E F HR
2015
Q1
Actual 14,63% 14,11% 16,05% 18,92% 21,32% 24,56% 25,80% 24,14%
Target 13,10% 13,84% 14,31% 15,76% 18,47% 20,43% 23,17% 23,51%
2015
Q2
Actual 14,50% 11,32% 15,54% 15,39% 22,73% 18,66% 32,56% 21,23%
Target 13,20% 13,82% 14,29% 15,89% 18,40% 20,46% 23,08% 23,65%
2015
Q3
Actual 15,43% 15,35% 16,26% 17,88% 18,67% 28,28% 30,27% 30,45%
Target 13,18% 13,85% 14,30% 15,79% 18,43% 20,32% 23,19% 23,85%
2015
Q4
Actual 14,13% 15,56% 15,70% 19,38% 20,75% 18,04% 27,96% 31,22%
Target 12,20% 13,17% 13,81% 15,50% 17,59% 18,41% 21,29% 20,83%
2016
Q1
Actual 11,71% 13,15% 15,34% 19,64% 24,04% 26,57% 26,37% 34,78%
Target 10,62% 11,32% 12,09% 14,38% 16,17% 17,51% 18,28% 17,96%
2016
Q2
Actual 9,44% 3,01% 14,01% 15,63% 20,04% 23,82% 30,25% 28,27%
Target 8,15% 9,74% 11,46% 13,62% 15,22% 16,47% 17,05% 17,10%
2016
Q3
Actual 9,58% 11,76% 12,27% 15,05% 20,28% 25,01% 27,19% 29,21%
Target 8,40% 9,77% 11,48% 13,64% 15,22% 16,48% 17,04% 17,10%
2016
Q4
Actual 9,13% 10,95% 11,26% 16,35% 18,42% 26,65% 26,11%
Target 8,23% 8,60% 9,76% 11,31% 12,38% 14,27% 15,13%

Finland

  • The “HR” rated loans boosted their performance to our less risk sensitive investors with a realised net return of 23.09%, the best for the rating since 2015.
  • The “E” rated loans exhibited the best performance in both Finland (25.30%) and as the best performer as measured by average return across all countries (31.38%).
  • The “C” rated loans in the country have outperformed their targeted figure for each quarter of 2016 offering investors a good mid-level solution to the risk/reward balance.
Finland AA A B C D E F HR
2015
Q1
Actual 9,25% 7,41% 8,94% 12,07% 20,02% 43,58%
Target 12,87% 13,33% 14,50% 16,61% 18,15% 20,82%
2015
Q2
Actual 4,96% 10,41% 12,33% 10,21% 6,82% 13,30%
Target 12,88% 13,33% 14,67% 16,67% 18,07% 20,86%
2015
Q3
Actual 1,62% 8,36% 13,11% 15,00% 8,16% 19,27%
Target 12,90% 13,30% 14,70% 16,58% 18,36% 20,81%
2015
Q4
Actual 1,84% 10,56% 16,35% 15,18% 10,36% 26,47%
Target 12,89% 12,80% 14,49% 16,02% 16,86% 18,11%
2016
Q1
Actual 14,99% 13,59% 18,73% 26,38% 23,64% 17,71%
Target 9,87% 11,22% 12,56% 13,44% 14,24% 14,40%
2016
Q2
Actual 16,57% 17,50% 16,16% 24,54% 21,51% 10,26%
Target 12,07% 14,05% 16,17% 17,55% 18,27% 19,19%
2016
Q3
Actual 7,69% 17,55% 16,69% 17,03% 17,60% 2,88%
Target 12,45% 14,34% 16,37% 17,89% 18,91% 19,19%
2016
Q4
Actual 2,47% 16,88% 22,57% 25,30% 17,40% 23,09%
Target 9,90% 11,36% 14,04% 15,53% 21,39% 29,22%

Spain

  • Though the country only offer riskier loans the reward has been proportional; the 42.19% performance for “E” loans surpassed all others.
  • Spain reversed the poor performance of Q2 while delivering the highest return for the country over the last two years.
  • Less risky loans are becoming increasingly scarce for those investing in Spain.
Spain AA A B C D E F HR
2015
Q1
Actual -3,48% -6,87% -6,18% 6,95% 12,33% 10,87%
Target 12,62% 12,90% 14,33% 16,21% 18,32% 20,24%
2015
Q2
Actual -12,37% -8,91% 6,36% 13,08% 14,92%
Target 12,85% 14,33% 16,23% 18,32% 20,22%
2015
Q3
Actual 16,48% -7,04% 8,71% 13,15% 5,53%
Target 13,11% 14,55% 16,18% 18,32% 20,31%
2015
Q4
Actual 19,35% -1,11% 7,58% 18,73% 14,36%
Target 13,41% 14,93% 16,24% 17,85% 18,06%
2016
Q1
Actual 36,87% 27,39% 21,40%
Target 14,61% 14,58% 13,93%
2016
Q2
Actual -5,41% 13,57% 5,36%
Target 19,41% 20,16% 20,36%
2016
Q3
Actual 30,94% 27,39% 17,10%
Target 19,30% 20,24% 20,65%
2016
Q4
Actual 42,19% 24,71% 28,34%
Target 17,61% 17,24% 28,44%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across portfolio per quarter

Since Q4 of 2015 the total performance of all Bondora loans has surpassed the targeted figure. The combined quarterly vintage performances for all countries continue the trend of realised returns surpassing their target since last quarter of 2015. Across all quarters the actual returns putperformed their targets by 1 percentage point.

2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2 2016-Q3 2016-Q4
Actual 13,76% 13,05% 14,18% 16,74% 21,94% 17,63% 18,60% 20,53%
Target 16,56% 16,52% 16,79% 16,28% 14,66% 15,64% 16,38% 15,77%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across previous 7 years

All countries show the same trends for realised net returns as those reported a month ago. Estonia’s average returns across the years have slightly increased to 21,97% and have been very stable compared to other countries. While performance of earlier yearly vintages for Spain’s is still poor, the past two years has seen healthy improvement, with average returns 8,35% in 2015 and 17,70% in 2016. Finland’s average returns saw a decrease of nearly 3 percentage points due to the steep drop in loan performance for the 2013 vintage.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Country Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target
EE 16,45% 29,49% 24,33% 23,14% 21,66% 18,16% 21,52% 18,15% 19,25% 17,00%  20,24%  14,43%
ES -7,99% 19,26% -2,75% 19,37% 8,35% 17,42%  17,70%  19,80%
FI 10,53% 17,53% 9,95% 15,99% 11,51% 15,50%  19,31%  15,97%
SK -7,84% 23,76%
ALL 16,45% 29,49% 24,33% 23,14% 19,05% 18,11% 12,04% 18,11% 14,18% 16,57%  19,64%  15,66%

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