Bondora portfolio performance – January 2017

Key takeaways

  • The total average realised net returns across all countries was 17,02%, exceeding the targeted figure by 98 basis points.
  • This outperformance relative to the targeted figure marks an ongoing trend which started in Q4 of 2015.
  • The realised net returns in Q3 of 2016 mark the second best period in nearly two years. The realised net returns for Q3 of 2016 across all countries exceeded the targeted figure by 258 basis points, bringing in 18.96%.
  • Since Q1 of 2015, the average realised net returns for Estonia is 20%, for Finland 15,40% and for Spain 12,54%.

Actual and targeted bondora net returns by grade and country

Estonia

  • The realised net returns for the lower rated “F” and “HR” loans delivered the best performance, 27.15% and 29.05% respectively, across the same ratings in the other countries. This return illustrates the strong risk/reward payoff in the country.
  • The HR loans had the strongest outperformance of 1195 percentage points above the goal.
  • The average performance across all the ratings was 18.66% which is between Spain and Finland.
Estonia AA A B C D E F HR
2015
Q1
Actual 14,59% 14,20% 16,21% 19,31% 21,82% 25,17% 26,42% 24,54%
Target 12,98% 13,82% 14,30% 15,74% 18,51% 20,34% 23,14% 23,46%
2015
Q2
Actual 14,45% 11,08% 15,75% 15,69% 23,08% 19,22% 33,34% 22,13%
Target 13,11% 13,83% 14,26% 15,96% 18,47% 20,49% 23,06% 23,62%
2015
Q3
Actual 15,47% 15,47% 16,40% 19,23% 18,74% 28,58% 31,21% 31,08%
Target 13,09% 13,84% 14,27% 15,85% 18,39% 20,32% 23,15% 23,85%
2015
Q4
Actual 13,77% 15,44% 15,48% 19,53% 20,74% 21,61% 28,04% 32,59%
Target 12,20% 13,17% 13,81% 15,50% 17,59% 18,41% 21,29% 20,83%
2016
Q1
Actual 11,74% 13,36% 15,30% 19,58% 24,16% 27,14% 26,41% 35,37%
Target 10,62% 11,32% 12,09% 14,38% 16,18% 17,51% 18,28% 17,96%
2016
Q2
Actual 9,26% 3,31% 13,97% 15,52% 20,01% 24,03% 31,30% 29,30%
Target 8,15% 9,74% 11,46% 13,62% 15,22% 16,47% 17,05% 17,10%
2016
Q3
Actual 8,84% 11,70% 12,18% 14,96% 20,16% 25,21% 27,15% 29,05%
Target 8,39% 9,74% 11,46% 13,61% 15,27% 16,52% 17,05% 17,10%

Finland

  • In Q3 of 2016, the country saw poor performance in the riskier HR loans which brought in only 3,14% returns.
  • The “C” rated loans saw a realised net return of 17.66% in Q3 of 2016, striking a good balance between risk and reward while outperforming the same rating in Estonia.
  • Since Q1 of 2016, realised returns for all ratings except HR have outperformed their targets.
Finland AA A B C D E F HR
2015
Q1
Actual 9,52% 7,79% 9,46% 13,77% 20,92% 44,68%
Target 12,88% 13,33% 14,41% 16,58% 17,98% 20,90%
2015
Q2
Actual 5,22% 11,09% 12,96% 10,90% 7,38% 13,76%
Target 12,88% 13,31% 14,70% 16,62% 18,04% 21,04%
2015
Q3
Actual 1,58% 8,82% 13,82% 15,66% 8,47% 20,09%
Target 12,90% 13,28% 14,71% 16,49% 18,54% 20,81%
2015
Q4
Actual 2,47% 10,73% 16,81% 15,40% 10,93% 26,54%
Target 12,89% 12,80% 14,49% 16,02% 16,86% 18,11%
2016
Q1
Actual 15,01% 14,01% 19,09% 26,98% 24,17% 18,30%
Target 9,87% 11,22% 12,56% 13,44% 14,24% 14,40%
2016
Q2
Actual 16,53% 18,07% 16,79% 24,73% 21,69% 11,29%
Target 12,07% 14,05% 16,17% 17,55% 18,27% 19,19%
2016
Q3
Actual 7,39% 17,66% 17,85% 18,27% 18,19% 3,14%
Target 12,45% 14,33% 16,41% 17,92% 18,89% 19,19%

Spain

  • Spain had remarkable performance in Q3 of 2016 with an average return of 24,13% which exceeds all other countries. This has been a substantial contribution to the 2016 total realised net return of all countries which was 19,96%, the highest of any previous year.
  • HR loans fell below their target in Q3 of 2016 by 191 basis points but still delivered a strong return of 18,74%.
  • Spain had the best average performance among “F” rated loans, being the only rating in Spain that exceeded its target in the period since Q1 of 2015.
Spain AA A B C D E F HR
2015
Q1
Actual -3,15% -6,84% -6,27% 7,55% 13,26% 11,79%
Target 12,61% 12,85% 14,39% 16,17% 18,32% 20,33%
2015
Q2
Actual -12,39% -8,70% 6,63% 14,04% 15,95%
Target 12,80% 14,36% 16,29% 18,32% 20,31%
2015
Q3
Actual 17,19% -7,31% 9,47% 14,08% 6,37%
Target 13,01% 14,74% 16,20% 18,32% 20,31%
2015
Q4
Actual 19,38% -1,31% 7,98% 18,80% 14,69%
Target 13,41% 14,93% 16,22% 17,85% 18,06%
2016
Q1
Actual 36,52% 28,25% 22,26%
Target 14,61% 14,58% 13,93%
2016
Q2
Actual -1,77% 15,83% 6,60%
Target 19,41% 20,16% 20,36%
2016
Q3
Actual 27,28% 26,37% 18,74%
Target 19,30% 20,24% 20,65%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across portfolio per quarter

Since Q4 of 2015 the total performance of all Bondora loans has surpassed the targeted figure.

2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2 2016-Q3
Actual 14,38% 13,56% 14.82% 17,14% 22,27% 17,98% 18,96%
Target 16,34% 16,31% 16,63% 16,28% 14,66% 15,64% 16,29%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across previous 7 years

Estonia remains the leader with an average realised net return of 20,85% in total year performance since 2013. Spanish segment of the portfolio has struggled earning an average of only 4.21% for the same period. Finland has shown continued performance improvement since 2014. The country’s best annual performance saw a significant jump upwards in 2016, averaging 19,86% compared to 12,12% net return for 2015.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Country Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target
EE 16,49% 29,45% 24,28% 23,12% 21,66% 18,16% 21,61% 18,12% 19,67% 16,88%  20,47%  14,74%
ES -7,63% 19,26% -2,53% 19,42% 8,97% 17,50%  18,04%  18,89%
FI 19,81% 17,53% 10,24% 16,02% 12,12% 15,30%  19,86%  15,73%
SK -7,48% 23,74%
ALL 16,46% 29,45% 24,28% 23,12% 19,21% 18,12% 12,33% 18,10% 14,73% 16,40%  19,96%  15,65%

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