Key takeaways

  • To date, the realised return across all countries is on track to continue a trend of three consecutive years of improved performance moving from 12.70% to 18.25% to 19.78% for 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively.
  • Spain and Finland have each exhibited three consecutive years of improved realised net returns. At this point, their 2017 performance suggests this trend is ongoing, though it’s still early in the year.
  • If 2017 figures hold steady the total realised net return will be the highest seen since 2012.
  • The variance between the realised net return for each country is growing as Spain begins to deliver greater performance.

Actual and targeted bondora net returns by grade and country

Estonia

  • “D” rated loans are beginning to strengthen their returns. Their Q1, 2017 performance exceeds the performance seen in the last three quarters.
  • The average realised net return has dropped to 16.62% which is slightly lower than the same measurement over each quarter for the last two years.
  • The lower risk loans (“AA,” “A” and “B”) have been delivering lower realised net returns in recent quarters than in 2015.
EstoniaAAABCDEFHR
2015
Q1
Actual14,60%13,75%15,45%18,31%20,37%24,10%24,57%23,02%
Target13,10%13,84%14,31%15,76%18,47%20,43%23,17%23,51%
2015
Q2
Actual14,19%11,39%14,96%14,33%21.56%16,97%31,19%19,48%
Target13,20%13,82%14,29%15,89%18,40%20,46%23,08%23,65%
2015
Q3
Actual15,41%15,20%16,02%17,60%18,07%26,74%27,87%27,25%
Target13,18%13,85%14,30%15,79%18,43%20,32%23,19%23,85%
2015
Q4
Actual14,03%15,42%15,05%19,01%19,93%14,51%23,36%27,04%
Target12,20%13,17%13,81%15,50%17,59%18,41%21,29%20,83%
2016
Q1
Actual11,88%13,68%15,01%19,03%23,72%25,85%23,45%34,70%
Target10,62%11,32%12,09%14,38%16,17%17,51%18,28%17,96%
2016
Q2
Actual9,74%1,51%13,89%15,78%17,99%20,82%28,51%26,28%
Target8,15%9,74%11,46%13,62%15,22%16,47%17,05%17,10%
2016
Q3
Actual9,93%12,11%11,77%14,42%17,94%22,80%24,72%27,29%
Target8,40%9,77%11,48%13,64%15,22%16,48%17,04%17,10%
2016
Q4
Actual9,25%10,46%11,84%15,80%18,02%25,51%30,22%
Target8,21%8,61%9,61%11,10%12,47%14,09%14,94%
2017
Q1
Actual9,46%8,97%12,33%14,97%19,69%23,91%26,99%
Target8,29%8,61%9,44%10,84%12,68%13,99%14,63%

Finland

  • Finland has had an excellent Q1 this year delivering an average realised net return of 24.79%.
  • The riskier “HR” rated loans are performing again after two consecutive quarters of low returns. “HR” loans returned 30.09% in Q4 of 2016 and 23.07% in this years first quarter relative to the return of -4.08% and 4.40% seen in Q3 and Q2 of 2016 respectively.
FinlandAAABCDEFHR
2015
Q1
Actual7,77%6,44%6,87%10,03%18,60%41,17%
Target12,87%13,33%14,50%16,61%18,15%20,82%
2015
Q2
Actual3,49%9,93%10,69%7,73%4,59%11,19%
Target12,88%13,33%14,67%16,67%18,07%20,86%
2015
Q3
Actual1,58%8,07%10,69%13,60%6,62%16,52%
Target12,90%13,30%14,70%16,58%18,36%20,81%
2015
Q4
Actual0,99%10,56%15,01%14,58%8,02%23,85%
Target12,89%12,80%14,49%16,02%16,86%18,11%
2016
Q1
Actual15,14%12,16%16,82%24,64%21,22%14,83%
Target9,87%11,22%12,56%13,44%14,24%14,40%
2016
Q2
Actual17,50%16,07%13,41%20,83%18,73%4,40%
Target12,07%14,05%16,17%17,55%18,27%19,19%
2016
Q3
Actual7,74%18,02%14,48%12,48%12,53%-4,08%
Target12,45%14,34%16,37%17,89%18,91%19,19%
2016
Q4
Actual-19,31%17,90%23,84%22,28%29,67%30,09%
Target9,90%11,87%14,32%16,37%20,66%27,53%
2017
Q1
Actual18,09%11,38%19,02%22,99%35,05%23,07%
Target11,86%11,20%13,81%15,47%18,70%23,57%

Spain

  • Spain has seen the second best average realised net return since the start of 2015. First quarter of 2017 for the country returned an average of 30.50%.
  • The country’s limited offering of riskier loans (“E,” “F,” and “HR”) have helped boost the total average return as higher interest rates offset the higher likelihood of default.
  • These three loan ratings are currently outperforming their targeted figures by an average of almost 7 percentage points.
SpainAAABCDEFHR
2015
Q1
Actual-6,68%-8,83%-7,13%5,17%9,81%8,43%
Target12,62%12,90%14,33%16,21%18,32%20,24%
2015
Q2
Actual-13,98%-10,57%3,93%10,26%12,51%
Target12,85%14,33%16,23%18,32%20,22%
2015
Q3
Actual15,29%-6,88%5,44%10,58%2,39%
Target13,11%14,55%16,18%18,32%20,31%
2015
Q4
Actual17,76%-0,99%6,48%15,65%11,45%
Target13,41%14,93%16,24%17,85%18,06%
2016
Q1
Actual37,26%24,35%17,95%
Target14,61%14,58%13,93%
2016
Q2
Actual-17,43%4,21%0,39%
Target19,41%20,16%20,36%
2016
Q3
Actual28,38%25,66%8,74%
Target19,30%20,24%20,65%
2016
Q4
Actual37,38%23,93%29,24%
Target16,44%17,15%27,79%
2017
Q1
Actual22,23%37,13%29,69%
Target15,12%17,17%29,14%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across portfolio per quarter

Just as last month, the average realized returns for 2016 vastly outperformed 2015 quarterly returns. Average for 2016 came to 18.34%, exceeding 2015 aversages by more than five percentage points. 2017 has also started strong, with Q1 average realized returns of 19.80%, which is 5.01 percentage points higher its target return (14.78%). Overall, the total average quarterly returns since 2015 is exceeding the target by 0.84%.

2015-Q12015-Q22015-Q32015-Q42016-Q12016-Q22016-Q32016-Q42017-Q1
Actual12,61%11,77%12,98%15,48%20,89%16,07%16,19%22,54%20,86%
Target16,56%16,52%16,79%16,28%14,66%15,64%16,38%16,41%14,84%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across previous 8 years

The early Q1 indicators for this year suggest we’re on track to deliver a fourth consecutive year of improved total realised net returns. The current realised return of 19.78% is less than that of years like 2010, 2011 and 2012, however, today we offer far more loan investments across more countries.

200920102011201220132014201520162017
CountryActualActualActualActualActualActualActualTargetActualTargetActualTarget
EE16,65%29,59%24,44%23,25%20,99%20,70%18,29%17,00%18,90%13,86%16,30%11,23%
ES-10,82%-4,40%6,00%17,42%15,54%21,48%30,49%27,41%
FI9,24%8,42%9,87%15,50%18,39%16,85%24,75%18,00%
SK-9,75%
ALL16,65%29,59%24,44%23,25%18,35% 10,95%12,70%16,57%18,25%15,89%19,78%14,78%

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