Key takeaways

  • Updated performance data shows a total realised gain of 23,57% for 2016 Q4, carried by Spains and Finlands performance. This exceeds all other quarterly performance totals since 2015.
  • The margin of total outperformance relative to the targeted figure also exceeds all previous quarters dating back to 2015.
  • The latest total realised returns marks a three quarter trend of rising performance.
  • 2016 realised net returns are at a four-year high.

Actual and targeted bondora net returns by grade and country

Estonia

  • In 2016, all ratings exceeded their target returns with the exception of rating A in Q2 of 2016.
  • The “A” through “F” rated loans in Q4 of 2016 all delivered double digit returns offering investors strong income across nearly all risk levels.
  • The average realised net return across all ratings is roughly consistent with previous quarters despite the fact that “HR” loans were not available in Q4 2016.
EstoniaAAABCDEFHR
2015
Q1
Actual14,60%13,94%15,93%18,82%21,10%24,29%25,30%23,74%
Target13,10%13,84%14,31%15,76%18,47%20,43%23,17%23,51%
2015
Q2
Actual14,46%11,29%15,88%15,31%22,53%18,29%32,24%20,81%
Target13,20%13,82%14,29%15,89%18,40%20,46%23,08%23,65%
2015
Q3
Actual15,48%15,31%16,29%17,89%18,52%27,92%29,82%30,00%
Target13,18%13,85%14,30%15,79%18,43%20,32%23,19%23,85%
2015
Q4
Actual14,13%15,54%15,53%19,41%20,64%14,61%28,00%29,95%
Target12,20%13,17%13,81%15,50%17,59%18,41%21,29%20,83%
2016
Q1
Actual11,85%13,36%15,31%19,65%23,99%26,74%25,39%36,43%
Target10,62%11,32%12,09%14,38%16,17%17,51%18,28%17,96%
2016
Q2
Actual9,57%2,66%14,06%15,85%19,66%23,47%30,30%27,88%
Target8,15%9,74%11,46%13,62%15,22%16,47%17,05%17,10%
2016
Q3
Actual9,75%11,81%12,33%15,20%19,74%25,06%27,16%29,80%
Target8,40%9,77%11,48%13,64%15,22%16,48%17,04%17,10%
2016
Q4
Actual8,96%10,48%11,96%16,66%19,11%27,00%30,32%
Target8,22%8,61%9,66%11,16%12,43%14,07%15,04%

Finland

  • On average, E, F and HR rated loans are accelerating their performance growth at a faster rate than all other ratings in the country.
  • D and E rating have been bringing the most stable returns across 2015 and 2016 with the average of nearly 17%.
FinlandAAABCDEFHR
2015
Q1
Actual8,87%7,00%8,33%11,63%20,25%43,25%
Target12,87%13,33%14,50%16,61%18,15%20,82%
2015
Q2
Actual4,71%9,83%12,05%10,18%6,09%12,77%
Target12,88%13,33%14,67%16,67%18,07%20,86%
2015
Q3
Actual1,66%8,07%12,18%14,51%7,82%18,55%
Target12,90%13,30%14,70%16,58%18,36%20,81%
2015
Q4
Actual1,87%10,20%16,12%15,03%9,83%25,59%
Target12,89%12,80%14,49%16,02%16,86%18,11%
2016
Q1
Actual15,10%13,14%18,41%26,20%23,17%17,73%
Target9,87%11,22%12,56%13,44%14,24%14,40%
2016
Q2
Actual16,79%16,88%15,73%24,00%21,25%8,46%
Target12,07%14,05%16,17%17,55%18,27%19,19%
2016
Q3
Actual7,78%17,82%16,92%15,96%17,03%1,39%
Target12,45%14,34%16,37%17,89%18,91%19,19%
2016
Q4
Actual-5,24%18,07%25,08%28,05%35,77%31,57%
Target9,90%11,75%14,40%16,36%20,85%27,89%

Spain

  • Each loan outperformed its targeted figure by a wide margin.
  • “HR” rated loans generated their strongest performance dating back to Q1 of 2015.
  • The Q4, 2016 average performance of all Spain loans is greater than any quarter dating back to the start of 2015.
SpainAAABCDEFHR
2015
Q1
Actual-3,48%-6,87%-6,18%6,95%12,33%10,87%
Target12,62%12,90%14,33%16,21%18,32%20,24%
2015
Q2
Actual-12,37%-8,91%6,36%13,08%14,92%
Target12,85%14,33%16,23%18,32%20,22%
2015
Q3
Actual16,48%-7,04%8,71%13,15%5,53%
Target13,11%14,55%16,18%18,32%20,31%
2015
Q4
Actual19,35%-1,11%7,58%18,73%14,36%
Target13,41%14,93%16,24%17,85%18,06%
2016
Q1
Actual36,87%27,39%21,40%
Target14,61%14,58%13,93%
2016
Q2
Actual-5,41%13,57%5,36%
Target19,41%20,16%20,36%
2016
Q3
Actual30,94%27,39%17,10%
Target19,30%20,24%20,65%
2016
Q4
Actual42,19%24,71%28,34%
Target17,61%17,24%28,44%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across portfolio per quarter

The quarterly performance across all ratings has continued to show much better returns in 2016 compared to 2015. For 2015, the the average target figures exceeded the actual returns by 2,45 percentage points, whereas for 2016 the actual returns were higher than the target by 4,4 percentage points on average. Across two past years the actual performance on the portfolio is still on par or slightly exceeding its targets.

2015-Q12015-Q22015-Q32015-Q42016-Q12016-Q22016-Q32016-Q4
Actual13,40%12,80%13,77%16,31%21,72%17,28%18,11%23,57%
Target16,56%16,52%16,79%16,28%14,66%15,64%16,38%16,34%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across previous 8 years

Looking at the returns by yearly vintage, we see that Estonia has delivered above-target returns across all 8 years. Across all years, Spain and Slovakia are showing poorest performance for loans issued in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Still, Spain has significantly improved the returns for the last two years. While Finlands returns before from 2013-2015 has performance under its target, 2016 has seen great improvement by outpacing its target so far.

20092010201120122013201420152016
CountryActualActualActualActualActualTargetActualTargetActualTargetActualTarget
EE16,45%29,53%24,37%23,17%21,42%18,15%21,19%18,16%19,05%17,00% 20,10% 14,11%
ES-8,58%19,26%-3,18%19,37%7,78%17,42% 17,83% 20,67%
FI10,18%17,53%9,65%15,99%11,10%15,50% 20,07% 16,63%
SK-8,32%23,76%
ALL16,45%29,53%24,37%23,17%18,90%18,11%11,79%18,11%13,83%16,57% 19,75% 15,81%