Bondora portfolio performance – March 2017

Key takeaways

  • Updated performance data shows a total realised gain of 23,57% for 2016 Q4, carried by Spains and Finlands performance. This exceeds all other quarterly performance totals since 2015.
  • The margin of total outperformance relative to the targeted figure also exceeds all previous quarters dating back to 2015.
  • The latest total realised returns marks a three quarter trend of rising performance.
  • 2016 realised net returns are at a four-year high.

Actual and targeted bondora net returns by grade and country

Estonia

  • In 2016, all ratings exceeded their target returns with the exception of rating A in Q2 of 2016.
  • The “A” through “F” rated loans in Q4 of 2016 all delivered double digit returns offering investors strong income across nearly all risk levels.
  • The average realised net return across all ratings is roughly consistent with previous quarters despite the fact that “HR” loans were not available in Q4 2016.
Estonia AA A B C D E F HR
2015
Q1
Actual 14,60% 13,94% 15,93% 18,82% 21,10% 24,29% 25,30% 23,74%
Target 13,10% 13,84% 14,31% 15,76% 18,47% 20,43% 23,17% 23,51%
2015
Q2
Actual 14,46% 11,29% 15,88% 15,31% 22,53% 18,29% 32,24% 20,81%
Target 13,20% 13,82% 14,29% 15,89% 18,40% 20,46% 23,08% 23,65%
2015
Q3
Actual 15,48% 15,31% 16,29% 17,89% 18,52% 27,92% 29,82% 30,00%
Target 13,18% 13,85% 14,30% 15,79% 18,43% 20,32% 23,19% 23,85%
2015
Q4
Actual 14,13% 15,54% 15,53% 19,41% 20,64% 14,61% 28,00% 29,95%
Target 12,20% 13,17% 13,81% 15,50% 17,59% 18,41% 21,29% 20,83%
2016
Q1
Actual 11,85% 13,36% 15,31% 19,65% 23,99% 26,74% 25,39% 36,43%
Target 10,62% 11,32% 12,09% 14,38% 16,17% 17,51% 18,28% 17,96%
2016
Q2
Actual 9,57% 2,66% 14,06% 15,85% 19,66% 23,47% 30,30% 27,88%
Target 8,15% 9,74% 11,46% 13,62% 15,22% 16,47% 17,05% 17,10%
2016
Q3
Actual 9,75% 11,81% 12,33% 15,20% 19,74% 25,06% 27,16% 29,80%
Target 8,40% 9,77% 11,48% 13,64% 15,22% 16,48% 17,04% 17,10%
2016
Q4
Actual 8,96% 10,48% 11,96% 16,66% 19,11% 27,00% 30,32%
Target 8,22% 8,61% 9,66% 11,16% 12,43% 14,07% 15,04%

Finland

  • On average, E, F and HR rated loans are accelerating their performance growth at a faster rate than all other ratings in the country.
  • D and E rating have been bringing the most stable returns across 2015 and 2016 with the average of nearly 17%.
Finland AA A B C D E F HR
2015
Q1
Actual 8,87% 7,00% 8,33% 11,63% 20,25% 43,25%
Target 12,87% 13,33% 14,50% 16,61% 18,15% 20,82%
2015
Q2
Actual 4,71% 9,83% 12,05% 10,18% 6,09% 12,77%
Target 12,88% 13,33% 14,67% 16,67% 18,07% 20,86%
2015
Q3
Actual 1,66% 8,07% 12,18% 14,51% 7,82% 18,55%
Target 12,90% 13,30% 14,70% 16,58% 18,36% 20,81%
2015
Q4
Actual 1,87% 10,20% 16,12% 15,03% 9,83% 25,59%
Target 12,89% 12,80% 14,49% 16,02% 16,86% 18,11%
2016
Q1
Actual 15,10% 13,14% 18,41% 26,20% 23,17% 17,73%
Target 9,87% 11,22% 12,56% 13,44% 14,24% 14,40%
2016
Q2
Actual 16,79% 16,88% 15,73% 24,00% 21,25% 8,46%
Target 12,07% 14,05% 16,17% 17,55% 18,27% 19,19%
2016
Q3
Actual 7,78% 17,82% 16,92% 15,96% 17,03% 1,39%
Target 12,45% 14,34% 16,37% 17,89% 18,91% 19,19%
2016
Q4
Actual -5,24% 18,07% 25,08% 28,05% 35,77% 31,57%
Target 9,90% 11,75% 14,40% 16,36% 20,85% 27,89%

Spain

  • Each loan outperformed its targeted figure by a wide margin.
  • “HR” rated loans generated their strongest performance dating back to Q1 of 2015.
  • The Q4, 2016 average performance of all Spain loans is greater than any quarter dating back to the start of 2015.
Spain AA A B C D E F HR
2015
Q1
Actual -3,48% -6,87% -6,18% 6,95% 12,33% 10,87%
Target 12,62% 12,90% 14,33% 16,21% 18,32% 20,24%
2015
Q2
Actual -12,37% -8,91% 6,36% 13,08% 14,92%
Target 12,85% 14,33% 16,23% 18,32% 20,22%
2015
Q3
Actual 16,48% -7,04% 8,71% 13,15% 5,53%
Target 13,11% 14,55% 16,18% 18,32% 20,31%
2015
Q4
Actual 19,35% -1,11% 7,58% 18,73% 14,36%
Target 13,41% 14,93% 16,24% 17,85% 18,06%
2016
Q1
Actual 36,87% 27,39% 21,40%
Target 14,61% 14,58% 13,93%
2016
Q2
Actual -5,41% 13,57% 5,36%
Target 19,41% 20,16% 20,36%
2016
Q3
Actual 30,94% 27,39% 17,10%
Target 19,30% 20,24% 20,65%
2016
Q4
Actual 42,19% 24,71% 28,34%
Target 17,61% 17,24% 28,44%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across portfolio per quarter

The quarterly performance across all ratings has continued to show much better returns in 2016 compared to 2015. For 2015, the the average target figures exceeded the actual returns by 2,45 percentage points, whereas for 2016 the actual returns were higher than the target by 4,4 percentage points on average. Across two past years the actual performance on the portfolio is still on par or slightly exceeding its targets.

2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2 2016-Q3 2016-Q4
Actual 13,40% 12,80% 13,77% 16,31% 21,72% 17,28% 18,11% 23,57%
Target 16,56% 16,52% 16,79% 16,28% 14,66% 15,64% 16,38% 16,34%

Actual and targeted bondora net returns across previous 8 years

Looking at the returns by yearly vintage, we see that Estonia has delivered above-target returns across all 8 years. Across all years, Spain and Slovakia are showing poorest performance for loans issued in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Still, Spain has significantly improved the returns for the last two years. While Finlands returns before from 2013-2015 has performance under its target, 2016 has seen great improvement by outpacing its target so far.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Country Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target
EE 16,45% 29,53% 24,37% 23,17% 21,42% 18,15% 21,19% 18,16% 19,05% 17,00%  20,10%  14,11%
ES -8,58% 19,26% -3,18% 19,37% 7,78% 17,42%  17,83%  20,67%
FI 10,18% 17,53% 9,65% 15,99% 11,10% 15,50%  20,07%  16,63%
SK -8,32% 23,76%
ALL 16,45% 29,53% 24,37% 23,17% 18,90% 18,11% 11,79% 18,11% 13,83% 16,57%  19,75%  15,81%